BUILDING MOMENTUM IN A KEY BATTLEGROUND:

How Community-Centered Messaging Narrowed the Gap in NE-02

In one of the most competitive races of 2024, Spero Studio partnered with the DCCC to support Democrat Tony Vargas in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Despite a narrow loss, Vargas outperformed expectations and his past campaigns, coming within 7,000 votes of unseating Republican incumbent Don Bacon. Through strategic outreach and targeted messaging, we mobilized key demographics and set the stage for future success in this top battleground.

The Landscape

A Battleground on the Rise

NE-02, a 50.4% DPI district extending westward from Omaha, is a microcosm of national electoral dynamics. While majority-White, the district includes significant Black and Hispanic populations, with 80% of its registrants concentrated in Omaha. Key challenges included overcoming a Republican turnout advantage and engaging low-propensity voters of color:

  1. Modeled Republicans turned out 5.7 points higher than Democrats in 2020.

  2. Registered Black voters turned out 51% less than their White counterparts in 2020.

  3. Hispanic and Black voters are expected to comprise a larger share of the electorate in 2024.

The Challenge

Engaging low-propensity voters of color

To narrow the margin against a Republican incumbent in a majority-White district, our strategy needed to address two primary challenges:

  • Boosting turnout among friendly but disengaged Black and Hispanic voters.

  • Introducing Tony Vargas to voters unfamiliar with his message and state legislative record.

Our Approach

Culturally Resonant Messaging

We focused on connecting Tony Vargas’s record of public service with the lived experiences of key demographics, emphasizing health equity and economic security through relatable, culturally resonant narratives.

Key Themes

  • Health Equity: Ads like "A Kid Like Me" and "Health Equity" highlighted Medicaid expansion and other legislative achievements that directly benefited families in NE-02.

  • Economic Security: Messaging emphasized Democratic efforts to reduce healthcare costs, fund public health clinics, and expand postpartum coverage

Media Strategy

Leveraging Digital to Maximize Reach

Given the district's urban nature and concentrated demographics, digital media played a pivotal role in our outreach efforts. We employed a platform-specific approach to ensure visibility among low-propensity voters:

  • Social Media & Streaming Ads: High-frequency placements targeted Black and Hispanic voters with tailored narratives.

  • OTT/CTV: Ads like "Health Equity" reached cord-cutters and streaming audiences.

  • Radio and streaming ads reach voters out of home to reinforce messaging. 

The Results

Tony Vargas’s campaign marked significant progress in NE-02:

  • Improved Performance: Vargas outperformed his past elections and came within 7,000 votes of unseating the incumbent.

  • Mobilized Voters: Messaging and outreach efforts successfully engaged low-propensity Black and Hispanic voters, increasing their share of the electorate compared to 2022.

By crafting relatable and culturally resonant messaging, we narrowed the gap in one of the nation’s most critical battleground districts. Tony Vargas’s near-win in NE-02 is a testament to the power of targeted outreach and serves as a roadmap for future Democratic success in Nebraska.